November 25, 2013

Stagflation: Debt Grows, GDP Slows

Posted in Economy, Inflation, investment advisor, investment banking, investments, recession, Robert Barone at 7:59 PM by Robert Barone

The markets are torn between polar opposite schools of thought. There are those who believe we are in a period of intense deflation, which will continue for some time, and there are those who believe that inflation is inevitable and, in fact, is already with us as consumers can attest.

Deflation

The Fed must be in the deflation camp. Why else would they continue to create $85 billion/month of new and unneeded bank reserves? Several recent academic papers have indicated that the major industrial economies of the world, representing more than 70% of the world’s GDP, are so indebted (U.S. Private & Public Debt/GDP: 360%, Europe: 450%, UK: 470%, Japan: 500%) that the world has entered into a period of debt disequilibrium and deleveraging. The annals of history indicate that such periods take an average of 20 years to resolve. Because the indebtedness has actually increased since the financial crisis and Great Recession, this deleveraging cycle may be even longer.

The deflationists believe that the world’s economies will continue to falter, and that no matter how much QE the Fed provides, it won’t translate into economic growth if there is no ability to consume due to excessive debt loads. In this scenario, the price of gold and other precious metals have likely seen their peaks and may fall even further from current levels.

Inflation

The second camp belongs to those who see inflation, not only potentially in the future, but currently hurting consumers. The CPI, as produced by the BLS, just isn’t realistic for most Americans. In the Oct. 12 issue of Barron’s, commodity guru Jim Rogers opined, “The price of nearly everything is going up. We have inflation in India, China, Norway, Australia — everywhere but the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. I’m telling you they’re lying.”

In some of his recent daily blog posts, economist David Rosenberg (Gluskin-Sheff) indicated that if the rapid increase in home and auto prices over the past year were used directly in the CPI instead of the massaged data that is used, today’s CPI would be north of 4% instead of the 1.5% that BLS publishes. <story_page_break>

Furthermore, private sector economists who measure inflation, like John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics or Ed Butowsky, producer of the Chapwood Index, all point to real inflation as being much higher than BLS’s CPI.

But, besides the actual everyday inflation experience, the final issue in the inflation camp, and the one that I think carries the most weight, is the rapidly approaching freight train of unfunded liabilities of the U.S. federal government. There are monstrous (unspoken) additions each year to those liabilities. Add to these the lack of recognition and inability of government to address these numbers, which are almost too long to write on a page ($85,000,000,000,000 to $120,000,000,000,000). That’s $85 trillion to $120 trillion. Just for comparison, the annual GDP of the U.S. is about $16 trillion.

To date, the U.S. government has been able to issue trillions of dollars of debt ($17.5 trillion and growing rapidly) because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency and it is used in international transactions that have nothing to do with U.S. economic activity. Unfortunately, today there are now too many dollars in the system, and other world powers are both complaining and seeking alternatives. China now settles more than 12% of its foreign trade in its own currency, versus 3% in 2010. It is likely that foreign powers will soon begin to shun U.S. debt, leaving the Fed the only buyer of the large deficits that clearly lie ahead.

Stagflation

So, which side is correct — deflation or inflation? Unfortunately, both. There is too much debt, and the pace of economic growth has significantly deteriorated in each decade since the 1980s. Because both sides are correct, the result is “Stagflation,” a world of slow or negative economic growth accompanied by rising prices. If this is the case, the price of gold won’t stay down for long.

 

Robert Barone (Ph.D., economics, Georgetown University) is a principal of Universal Value Advisors, Reno, a registered investment adviser. Barone is a former director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco and is currently a director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Co., where he chairs the investment committee. Barone or the professionals at UVA (Joshua Barone, Andrea Knapp, Matt Marcewicz and Marvin Grulli) are available to discuss client investment needs.

Call them at 775-284-7778.

Statistics and other information have been compiled from various sources. Universal Value Advisors believes the facts and information to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee to the complete accuracy of this information.

 

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December 3, 2012

Barone: Spending: the nation’s real fiscal cliff issue

Posted in Economy, government, recession, taxes, Uncategorized tagged , , , , at 11:51 PM by Robert Barone

The business media is fixated on the “fiscal cliff” issue, not because its avoidance will spur economic growth, but because failure to avert it likely would mean another severe contraction in an already underperforming economy.

The most likely short-run outcome is for Congress and President Barack Obama to reach a “compromise,” which “kicks the can down the road” and gives these institutions additional time to resolve the issues. “Kicking the can” is a skill that has been mastered by politicians throughout the world, especially over the past five years.

The most significant and serious issue of the fiscal cliff, one that has been discussed but poorly analyzed, is the “spending” issue. Most Americans who pay some attention to the federal budget issues believe that the deficits have been $1.1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in the Obama era, and about half of that level when George W. Bush was president. The reality is that the federal budget deficit is grossly understated. It is calculated on a “cash” basis, meaning that only current cash-in and cash-out is counted. Future promises are completely ignored in calculating this deficit.

Think about this: Every single day for the next decade or so, 10,000 Americans will become eligible for Medicare and Social Security. These programs have no real assets of their own and must be financed out of current tax revenue. Today, 86 perrcent of all federal revenue collected already is committed as “transfer” payments (Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, income security and federal pensions) (USDebtClock.org). Just think of how much federal revenue will have to rise just to take care of these newly eligible benefit recipients. If interest on the debt (at historically low interest rates) is added, 97 percent of federal revenues are already accounted for. That leaves precious little for all of the rest of the federal functions, including defense, education, environment, homeland security, immigration, agriculture, foreign policy, etc.

Every publicly traded company in America is required to report their financials on a Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) basis. GAAP reporting includes, via a present value process, taking into account the cost of future promised payments. The underfunding of public pensions has become a big issue in America today.

But, even a pension that is 40 percent underfunded still has 60 percent of the assets that it needs. The promises made for all of the social programs of the federal government have 0 percent of the assets needed to meet the required payments. All must come from current tax collections and borrowing. You can see how the problem is exploding, given the current demographics of the population and those rapidly becoming eligible for such transfer payments.

Once each year, by statute, and to little fanfare, the U.S. Treasury reports (Dec. 15) what GAAP accounting would be for the federal budget. In 2004, under Bush, the headline federal cash-based deficit was $412 billion, but, because of changes to Medicare that year (prescription drugs), the GAAP-based deficit exploded to $11 trillion. For the first three years of the Obama era, the GAAP-based deficit exceeded $5 trillion each year.

The Treasury recently has postponed release of the 2012 fiscal year (ended Sept. 30) GAAP deficit until Jan. 17 so as not to inflame the fiscal cliff negotiations. I’ve seen an estimate from John Williams, a noted economist (shadowstats.com), that puts the 2012 GAAP deficit at $7 trillion, or about 44 percent of the entire output (GDP) of the country. Worse, while the official U.S. debt is approaching $15.2 trillion, the actual amount of promises already made for Social Security, Medicare and prescription drugs is more than $121.6 trillion, according to USDebtClock.org (and about $88 trillion using official U.S. Treasury estimates, according to Williams). Using the USDebtClock.org data, which appears to be more comprehensive, that amounts to $386,000 in unfunded promises for every U.S. citizen and $1,059,000 for each U.S. taxpayer.

Just to put this in perspective, the estimated value of all U.S. business, corporate and household assets is only $87.4 trillion. Now, do you see the magnitude of the spending issue?

No amount of spending cuts outside the social and entitlement programs and no amount of tax increases can bring the real GAAP budget deficits into balance. This fiscal cliff appears to be the last real opportunity to address the deteriorating spending issue.

Unfortunately, unless the social programs are addressed, the overspending issue isn’t going to be touched.

No doubt, a successful fiscal cliff can-kicking will encourage equity investors and most likely propel stocks upward, at least for the short term. But, if the social program and entitlement issues are not addressed, then all of us should worry about the future value of the dollar and future interest rates. The current situation in Greece will be just a microcosm of what could happen here.

Given the recent track record of Congress and the president on spending issues, you should begin to prepare your portfolio now.

Robert Barone (Ph.D., economics, Georgetown University) is a principal of Universal Value Advisors, Reno, a registered investment adviser. Barone is a former director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco and is currently a director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Co., where he chairs the investment committee. Barone or the professionals at UVA (Joshua Barone, Andrea Knapp, Matt Marcewicz and Marvin Grulli) are available to discuss client investment needs. Call them at 775-284-7778.

Statistics and other information have been compiled from various sources. Universal Value Advisors believes the facts and information to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee to the complete accuracy of this information.

November 5, 2012

Nation has impediments to economic growth

Posted in Economic Growth, recession, Uncategorized tagged , at 8:30 PM by Robert Barone

In my last column, I analyzed why headline data showing significant job growth might be misleading without a deep analysis of the underlying data. The fact is, the economy cannot grow without a healthy consumer, and the consumer cannot become healthy without a robust job market. This is common sense. The accompanying table sheds a lot of light on the health of those labor markets.

From July 2009 to September 2012, 3 million jobs have reappeared in America. From December 2009 to September 2012, that number is 5 million; 2 million jobs were lost between July and December 2009. But, if you stopped with that data, you would not have the real story.

• Over the period measured, jobs held by seniors, age 55 and older, grew by 3.5 million. That means that, on net, all jobs in other age brackets fell by 500,000.

• Those in the 20-24 age group (college graduates) grew by 730,000.

• Jobs for 16- to 19-year-olds fell by about 500,000.

• But the real issue here is that those in their prime earning years (ages 25-54) have lost 730,000 jobs. It is clear that, for the middle class, the recession has continued. And, it appears that Vice President Joe Biden hit the nail on the head when, in the vice presidential debate, he said that during the past four years, the middle class has been “crushed.”

Why has this occurred?

• After two devastating drops in the equity markets since 2001, and with a Federal Reserve policy of 0 percent interest rates, which dramatically reduces returns from now depleted retirement assets, seniors either are not retiring or are taking part-time employment just to survive.

• As you can see from the table, the number of part-time jobs has risen by 4 million since July 2009. These are folks who want full-time jobs but can’t find them. Remember, as I indicated in my last column, the headline measure of unemployment (7.8 percent in September) counts part-timers as fully employed.

• With increased levels of taxation (new upcoming Obamacare taxes plus promised new taxes on small businesses, which are those that earn more than $250,000 per year) and more regulations, employers are more than happy to use part-time workers where possible. By doing so, they have lower health care costs, lower hourly wage costs (the employee has a take-it-or-leave-it choice) and much lower long-term employment benefit and retirement costs.

Is it any wonder that household median income has fallen from $54,489 to $50,054 since the recession began? So, while the actual count of full- and part-time jobs has risen by 3 or 5 million depending on your starting date (July or December 2009), the vast majority of these have been part-time, low-wage jobs, and have been taken by seniors who simply cannot afford to retire. Meanwhile, full-time higher wage work for middle-class families in their prime earning years (25-54) has continued to contract after the recession supposedly ended.

Clearly, the economy won’t heal until these trends reverse. All of the rest of the supposed economic indicators (housing, GDP, stock prices, etc.) are irrelevant. Seniors need to be able to retire and have their full-time jobs taken by younger workers. Regulatory and government-imposed costs to business of hiring full-time employees need to be addressed. These are long-term issues. Recognition of these issues is a necessary first step — one we haven’t yet taken.

I suspect that the markets will pay more attention to these issues after the election, no matter who the winner is.

Robert Barone (Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University) is a Principal of Universal Value
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.

Information cited has been compiled from various sources which UVA believes to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee as to its accuracy. A more detailed description of the company, its management and practices is contained in its “Firm Brochure” (Form ADV, Part 2A) which may be obtained by contacting UVA at: 9222 Prototype Dr., Reno, NV 89521. Ph: (775) 284-7778.

October 23, 2012

Borrow money? ‘No thanks,’ say consumers

Posted in debt, Economy, recession, Uncategorized tagged , , , , at 9:43 PM by Robert Barone

Borrow money? ‘No thanks,’  say consumers

By Sheyna  Steiner • Bankrate.com
Highlights
  • Three-quarters of  Americans are not inclined to take on debt right now.
  • The Federal Reserve  announcement to keep rates low to 2015 may have dampened borrowing.
  • Uncertainty is  affecting consumer confidence, which impacts borrowing.
Financial  Security Index Charts » Borrow Money? No Thanks, Say Consumers
The Federal Reserve’s latest declaration to keep interest rates shockingly  low until 2015 has not galvanized the populace into borrowing truckloads of  money. In fact, most consumers say the Fed’s announcement does little to make  them more inclined to borrow money, according to Bankrate’s October Financial  Security Index.
Just 23 percent of consumers say they are tempted to take on more debt, but  74 percent say “no thanks” to low-rate borrowing right now, Bankrate’s survey  reveals.
At the Sept. 13 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal  Reserve’s monetary policy group, it was announced that the federal funds rate —  the very short-term interest rate controlled by the Fed — will remain close to  zero percent for a year longer than the group previously thought.
Though one of the stated aims of the central bank’s policy is to stimulate  economic activity through consumer spending and borrowing, economic theory  posits that the announcement may have the opposite consequence in the short  term, according to Bill Hampel, senior vice president of research and policy  analysis and chief economist at the Credit Union National Association.
“If anything, the effect of the announcement itself would be to reduce  borrowing today,” he says. “Some people may want to borrow now because credit is  so cheap, but you’ve just told them you don’t need to rush out and borrow now  because it is going to be cheap next quarter, next year, the year after that and  the year after that.”
Even in normal times, though, consumer loan demand is rarely moved by  interest rates, says Hampel.

What affects consumer borrowing

Though consumers do shop by price when they need a loan, a squishier metric  is actually more influential when it comes to deciding whether to take on more  debt: consumer confidence.
“If people were comfortable that they would be able to find jobs or keep  their jobs, then, even if rates were a little bit higher, they would be willing  to borrow more and spend. But that is not the situation,” says Brian Rehling,  managing director and chief fixed-income strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors.
Uncertainty about everything from the recession in Europe, the presidential  election and the looming fiscal cliff is limiting consumer confidence — as is  the still-high unemployment rate, currently 7.8 percent, according to the Bureau  of Labor Statistics.
All of that might be bearable if household incomes were moving up. But they  aren’t.
“Median income continued to fall even after the recession ended,” says Robert  Barone, economist, portfolio manager and partner at Universal Value Advisors in  Reno, Nev.
Data from the Census Bureau released in mid-September show that real median  household income in 2011 was $50,054, down 8.1 percent from 2007, the year  before the recession began. Real income reflects the erosive effects of  inflation.
“In today’s environment, it’s upside down: Incomes are falling. So, when  incomes are falling, people worry, ‘How am I going to pay it back if I borrow?’  no matter what the interest rate is,” Barone says.

No shortage of debt

While more consumer spending would boost economic activity, consumers are  still recovering from previous spending binges.
The most recent numbers from the Federal Reserve showed that total household  debt is at 103 percent of disposable income.
Hampel says that number represents total debt in the household sector — both  mortgage and nonmortgage debt combined. “It peaked at the beginning of the  financial crisis at 123 percent. Normal, back 10 to 15 years ago, was somewhere  south of 80 percent,” he says.

So what do low interest rates do?

In normal times, low interest rates might nudge consumers to borrow money,  but the Federal Reserve intends to stimulate the economy by helping homeowners  refinance their existing mortgages.
The most recent actions by the central bank — the announcement of the third  round of quantitative easing, or QE3 — pushed mortgage rates to new lows. If  many people can refinance their mortgages, that will free up some household  income that can then be spent or invested.
“That is sort of how the Fed policy of keeping rates low will stimulate the  economy: by increasing the disposable income of households through refinancing.  And also by keeping interest rates low, it will make it easier for households to  buy new houses, which will stimulate the construction sector slightly,” says  Hampel.
But refinancing isn’t taking on new debt; it’s just repackaging debt that’s  already on the books, so to speak. The real rush to borrow money may only come  just before the sale ends, about three years from now.

Robert Barone (Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University) is a Principal of Universal Value Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.

Information cited has been compiled from various sources which UVA believes to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee as to its accuracy. A more detailed description of the company, its management and practices is contained in its “Firm Brochure” (Form ADV, Part 2A) which may be obtained by contacting UVA at: 9222 Prototype Dr., Reno, NV 89521.

Ph: (775) 284-7778.

October 16, 2012

Why Jack Welch Has A Point About Unemployment Numbers

Posted in Economy, recession, Uncategorized, Unemployment tagged , , at 9:54 PM by Robert Barone

When the September employment data were released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), depending on political persuasion, the news was either excellent or it was a sham. We saw reactions like those former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, who tweeted a suggestion of manipulation. On the other hand, the Obama administration has made political hay with the rapid fall in the unemployment rate in August and September.

Every month the BLS takes two surveys relative to employment, the Household Survey (officially titled The Current Population Survey), and the Establishment Survey (The Current Employment Statistics Survey). Both surveys have acknowledged flaws and both have a significant bias that pushes the number of jobs upward and the unemployment rate lower. To correctly interpret the data, one must understand how the statistics are calculated, how the biases are imparted, and the magnitude of those biases.

The Household Survey is used to calculate the various employment and unemployment indexes and rates. There are several of these indexes. Most of the public only hears about one of them, the one the BLS refers to as U-3 (7.80% seasonally adjusted (SA) for September). The public may be vaguely aware of one other one, the U-6. The numbers are produced from a monthly survey of 60,000 households. Here are some of the flaws:

•Because the sample of households is small relative to the total number of households, the series is notoriously volatile. In August, for example, the raw data (Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)) showed the number of jobs fell by 568,000. In September, that same number showed an increase of 775,000 jobs (NSA). The BLS reported this as 873,000 SA which is the number that the media got all excited about. Using the NSA data, over the two months, 207,000 jobs were created, or 103,500 per month on average. This leads to a very different conclusion from a single 873,000 data point.

•In 1994, the BLS changed the way in which it counts “discouraged” workers for the U-3 index. If one is unemployed for more than 52 weeks, even if one continues to look for employment, one is dropped from the labor force. A smaller denominator with the same number employed leads to a higher employment rate and a lower unemployment rate. Ask yourself how much sense this makes in today’s world where the average unemployment duration is 40 weeks and there have been several years where unemployment benefits last for 99 weeks.

•The definition of employment is biased. If one worked part-time in the last 30 days, even baby sitting for a few hours one time, one is counted as employed. There is no weighting for part-time work in the U-3 index.

•The biggest issue with the Household Survey is the seasonal adjustment (SA) process itself. Theoretically, for the year as a whole, the changes in employment by month should add up to the same number, i.e., the monthly SA and NSA changes should each add up to the same amount. And, theoretically, the SA should be calculated once at the beginning of the year. But, for the last few years, the BLS has adopted what they call a “Concurrent” SA process in which they recalculate the seasonal factors every month. The practical result of this method is that every month, all of the 12 seasonal factors change, which means that all of the year to date monthly SA data also changes. As a result, by December, the January number has changed 11 times, the February number 10 times, the March number 9 times, etc. Here’s the rub. The BLS will not publish the changed monthly data on the grounds that they don’t want to “confuse” the data users. Because they do this, the monthly change in the unemployment rate is not meaningful because the number it is being compared to has changed, but the BLS won’t tell us what it has changed to. The September 7.8% SA unemployment rate (U-3) as reported in early October is being compared to August’s 8.1% SA rate (reported in early September) despite the fact that August’s unemployment rate has likely changed due to the calculation of new seasonal factors. The BLS knows what the changed August number is, but they won’t publish it until January, 2013.

All in all, the U-3 unemployment number is deeply flawed and should not be relied on as the business media and even the capital markets do. A better (though still flawed) indicator of labor market conditions is the U-6 measure. For both August and September, U-6 showed an unemployment rate of 14.7%. Unlike U-3, U-6 adds back to both the labor force and to the unemployed “discouraged’ and “marginally attached” workers, i.e., those who have stopped looking for work but still want a job, and accounts for part-time workers who want full time employment. The flaw is that U-6 removes the long-term discouraged worker after 52 weeks of unemployment. Nevertheless, it is still a much better indicator than U-3. John Williams estimates that if U-6 counted the long-term discouraged workers, the unemployment rate would be 22.8%.

The Establishment Survey collects data from more than 141,000 businesses and government agencies. The sample is about one-third of all nonfarm payroll employees in the U.S., and, as such, it is much less volatile than the Household Survey. Normally, the business media concentrates on this survey. This survey suffers from the same seasonal adjustment issues as the Household Survey except that BLS reports the current number (141,000 SA for September) and the revised data from the immediate past two months. It does not report the changes from earlier months, so it is possible that jobs reported in the current month were “borrowed” from earlier months, which aren’t reported until the next January. In fact, Mr. Williams contends that this is precisely what happens in the second half of each year.

Besides the transparency issue in the SA process (which can lead some to the manipulation conclusion) which the BLS could easily remedy simply by publishing the changed data on a monthly basis, the Establishment Survey suffers from a significant upward bias, known as the Birth-Death model. In the 80s, the BLS was constantly embarrassed that it was under reporting the number of jobs in the Establishment Survey by approximately 50,000 jobs per month. That occurred because more small businesses were being established than were being closed. And, one could probably argue that this was also true in the 90s during the tech boom. As a result, BLS adds approximately 50,000 jobs per month to the Establishment Survey report. That seems inappropriate in today’s world.

From all of this, it is clear that the U-6 measure is a lot more reliable than the U-3, the one that is most widely reported. In addition, when dealing with the Establishment Survey, be wary of the 50,000 jobs bias.

When I began work on this paper in early October, I was skeptical that there could be actual manipulation of the data. Mr. Williams has documented at least three cases of manipulation which he says have been confirmed by employees or former employees going all the way back to the 1960s. That is not a lot. Yet, one must worry about the lack of transparency in BLS’s reporting. After all, for the years 2010 and 2011 for which we have final numbers released in January of the following year, there were much lower levels of job creation than originally reported. Unfortunately, the media pays no attention to such revisions, and the bias goes unnoticed.

In an October 9 Wall Street Journal op-ed, Jack Welch defended his tweet, indicating that the economy would need to be growing at breakneck speed for unemployment to drop from 8.3% to 7.8% over two months. While this is quite different from the “manipulation” charge, it does make sense. The fact is, almost all other underlying data point to weaker, not stronger jobs numbers. New part-time jobs dominated the Household Survey data in September. Goods producing jobs actually fell. The National Federation of Independent Businesses index of employment softened in September as did Monster’s employment index. All of this seems to be in direct conflict with a SA increase of 873,000 jobs in September (Household Survey), the largest increase since 1983. The data also show that in August and September, governments added 602,000 new employees. Anyone following state and local government finances knows that number has to be far from accurate.

While there is no direct proof of manipulation, there are a lot of sound reasons, based on flawed methodologies, and based on nearly every other underlying employment data series, not to trust the headline making unemployment data.

Robert Barone (Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University) is a Principal of Universal Value
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.

Information cited has been compiled from various sources which UVA believes to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee as to its accuracy. A more detailed description of the company, its management and practices is contained in its “Firm Brochure” (Form ADV, Part 2A) which may be obtained by contacting UVA at: 9222 Prototype Dr., Reno, NV 89521.

Ph: (775) 284-7778.

August 2, 2012

Equities: Is a bear market inevitable in this economy?

Posted in debt, Economic Growth, Economy, Europe, Finance, government, investment banking, investments, payroll tax reductions, recession, Stocks, Uncategorized, Unemployment tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , at 7:40 PM by Robert Barone

All of the data and the trends in the data indicate that it is possible that a recession might already have begun.

• Job creation has been dismal in the second quarter, with little hope for improvement soon; jobless claims are, once again, on the rise.

• Retail sales have fallen three months in a row; this has never occurred without an ensuing recession. What is of greater concern is that this has occurred while gasoline prices have been falling.

• While market pundits have cheered small gains in housing data, it is clear that housing is still bottom bouncing. Changes in foreclosure laws have caused supply constraints that have made it appear that home prices are rising again.

• Industrial production, the one bright spot in the economy, showed a decline in May before recovering somewhat in June.

• The drought has caused raw food and commodity prices to spike. These will soon translate into higher food and raw input costs. (Is anyone now questioning the wisdom of the congressional mandate to produce increasing quantities of ethanol from corn instead of sugar?)

 • Consumer confidence continues at levels below those seen in past recessions . Much of this is due to uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and taxes.

• In the June Philadelphia Fed Survey, manufacturers were asked to list reasons for slowing production; 52 percent cited uncertain tax policy and government regulations.

• Real incomes are falling. The downward bias in the inflation numbers produced by the government inflates the reported GDP numbers. It has been my view that, as a result of the biased reporting, the recession never really ended, and real GDP is much lower than reported.

 Equity market up for year

 Nevertheless, despite all of the poor data, the equity markets have held up. At 1,338 (the closing level on July 25), the S&P 500 is still 6.4 percent higher than it was at the beginning of the year. This is strange, given that every other major market in the world is down 20 percent and in bear market territory. Here are a couple of possible explanations:

• The equity markets used to be a leading indicator of the economy. Severe market corrections (20 percent or more) usually meant recession was either imminent or already here. But, with the advent of computerized trading, the market now appears to be more of a coincident indicator. In late 2007, when the last recession began, the market was only off 5 percent from its October peak.

• Europe: There is such financial chaos in Europe that a flight to the dollar is continuing. Because higher quality bond yields are so low, some of the funds have found their way into the U.S. equity markets, thus keeping them buoyed.

Neither of these two reasons should give investors any confidence that U.S. markets can hold up. Besides the poor internal economic data within the U.S., worldwide data have been weak. In addition to the obvious problems in Europe, China is in a much slower growth mode, as is Japan, the rest of Asia, and even the commodity producers like Australia and Canada.

European soap opera
 
Europe is a whole other issue. American markets have benefited from their financial issues, but when panic and contagion show up over there, markets behave poorly over here. We have seen this time and again as the European drama (really a soap opera) has unfolded. It would be far better for the European politicians to come up with an
orderly plan for countries to exit the monetary union than to deny that the union isn’t in any danger of falling apart.

 

Solvable “fiscal cliff”

Finally, the approaching “fiscal cliff” in the U.S. is another wild card that could have a significant impact on capital markets. The good thing about the “fiscal cliff” is that it isn’t an outside force being imposed. The cliff is avoidable and completely under the control of Congress and the president.

With all of this going on, is a bear market inevitable? While I think that the confluence of events (worldwide economic slowdown, slowdown in the U.S., European financial chaos, “fiscal cliff”) make it likely, as I indicated in my last column, the application of “business friendly” policies could prevent it.

Until visibility into policy becomes clearer, investors should continue to be extremely cautious. They should remain liquid.

 Finally, the U.S. economy is so fragile that any external shock, like a financial implosion in Europe, is certain to have negative impacts on U.S. markets. Policy responses to economic slowdown or financial chaos (e.g., printing of money by the European Central Bank or QE3 by the Fed) are likely to have a positive impact on the value of precious metals and commodities. And the ongoing drought will definitely move food and commodity prices upward.

Robert Barone (Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University) is a Principal of Universal Value
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.
 
Information cited has been compiled from various sources which UVA believes to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee as to its accuracy. A more detailed description of the company, its management and practices is contained in its “Firm Brochure” (Form ADV, Part 2A) which may be obtained by contacting UVA at: 9222 Prototype Dr., Reno, NV 89521. Ph: (775) 284-7778.

July 23, 2012

Time for us to make enlightened policies

Posted in Armageddon, Bankruptcy, debt, Economic Growth, Economy, Europe, Finance, Foreign, recession, Spain, Uncategorized, Unemployment tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , at 8:10 PM by Robert Barone

On July 6, the country received another disappointing jobs report. For the month, the establishment survey indicated jobs grew by 80,000; for the quarter, such growth averaged 75,000, about one-third of the 26,000 monthly average for the first quarter. Clearly, the worldwide slowdown in Europe, China, India, Brazil, etc. is having an impact here.
 
Deleveraging and slow growth
 
Let’s be clear. We are in the midst of a worldwide debt deleveraging (i.e., consumers are paying down debt instead of consuming). So, absent another round of sweeping innovation anytime soon (e.g. the Internet), in the natural course of things, economic growth is going to be painfully hard to come by. As a result, it is doubly important that economic policies promote the growth that is available.
 
Policies are key
 
Clearly, monetary policy has led with pedal-to-the-metal and unconventional therapies. On the fiscal side, the Keynesian remedies (huge deficits) have been applied. Together, however, such policies haven’t worked well enough to establish a solid economic foundation, as the recent data prove. For those who study economic history, it is clear that deficit spending alone doesn’t work if government is simply stepping into the role of debtor in place of households, as total debt owed has continued to rise.The scary part is the interest cost of the rapidly accumulating debt when interest rates rise. For those who don’t believe me, just look at Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus and Italy in today’s world. Rising interest rates (near 7 percent for the 10-year government issue) make it impossible for states to survive without bankruptcy, a bailout or financial ruin.

 
Policy failures
 
In times like today, when deleveraging is slowing economic activity, government should adopt policies that promote the private sector, because it is the private sector, not government, that is the engine of economic growth. Unfortunately, the following federal policies currently are negatively impacting the private sector:

• Taxes:
Uncertainty surrounding tax policy causes the private sector to take less risk, which lowers investment and job creation. For the last several years, Congress has signaled that significant tax increases are just ahead (currently referred to as the “fiscal cliff” due to occur on Jan. 1, 2013), only to push them back at the last minute for another short period. Nevertheless, the uncertainty persists, and economic hesitancy pervades.
 
• Corporate cash: America’s multinational corporations are flush with cash, and while the politicians chide them for not putting it to work at home, it is their very policies that are to blame. Sixty percent of that corporate stash is held offshore, and it won’t come home because, if it does, 35 percent of it will disappear in taxation. Policies that encourage the return of that cash and its investment at home would spur job creation and economic growth.

• Corporate tax rate:
Having one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world discourages investment at home and makes investment elsewhere more fruitful. Corporate taxes are paid by consumers via higher prices.

• Energy policy: 
Cheap energy is the No. 1 requirement for robust economic growth. Current policies appear to be designed to raise energy prices to spur the development of government selected industries. The result is great waste (e.g. Solyndra) and significantly reduced economic growth.

• Taxmageddon:
The U.S. has a joke for a tax code. Talk about a Rube Goldberg! High, and threatened increased taxes on capital and investment just discourage economic growth. The tax code needs to be thrown out in favor of a broad-based, simple, and fair system.

• The financial system:
Scandal after scandal show how pervasive lawlessness is among the world’s “too big to fail” institutions. So far, no U.S. banker has gone to jail, nor trial, nor has anyone been indicted. Regulatory policy encourages moral hazard (excessive risk taking backed by implicit taxpayer bailouts) and discourages lending to the private sector. All of this reduces economic growth.
 
 

Investing in a deleveraging world 

 
For investors, the markets will continue to show volatility, with market up-drafts occurring when there is a perception of a policy change. For example, the recent hope generated by the late June “European Summit” caused a large rally in the equity markets, as will the hoped for move by the Fed toward more stimulus when and if it occurs. Down-drafts occur when poor economic data cross the tape.
 
Implications for Nevada
 
The policy prescription doesn’t end at the federal level. It is also relevant at the state and even local levels. Nevada has been challenged to attract new businesses now that gaming is widespread.The tax system in Nevada could be such a strength, especially when compared to what is going on in California. CNBC ranks Nevada 18 in “Business Friendliness,” but 30 in “Cost of Business.” Two things are critical: 1) The Legislature must stop threatening new business taxation every two years when it meets. The uncertainty this breeds prevents businesses from relocating here.

2) Policymakers must identify those businesses that would benefit from such a philosophy. There might be several categories that would so benefit, but one immediately comes to mind (maybe because I have worked in it all my life) — financial and intangible asset firms. This category includes managers of investments, hedge funds, trusts, patents and trademarks, insurance companies and services, banking and subsidiary finance companies. While these firms are usually small, their salary levels generally are high. A University of Nevada, Reno study indicates that salaries in these firms average $88,000, twice the state’s average.

Jon Ralston, a political columnist and host of a daily political commentary show seen locally, recently criticized the Apple move, saying that they will grow “astronomical profits” but that the state won’t benefit much because the number of jobs is small. But its move, along with those of Microsoft (which now employs several hundred), Intuit (also a large employer), Oracle and others, appears to recognize that Nevada, indeed, has something to offer now. If the state attracts enough of these companies, there will be plenty of tax revenue generated. The state should play to its current strengths and make sure its policies protect and nurture those strengths.

 
 
Robert Barone (Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University) is a Principal of Universal Value
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.
 
Information cited has been compiled from various sources which UVA believes to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee as to its accuracy. A more detailed description of the company, its management and practices is contained in its “Firm Brochure” (Form ADV, Part 2A) which may be obtained by contacting UVA at: 9222 Prototype Dr., Reno, NV 89521.
Ph: (775) 284-7778.
 

July 9, 2012

Economic issues, good and bad

Posted in Banking, Big Banks, debt, Economic Growth, Economy, Europe, Federal Reserve, Finance, government, greece, Housing Market, International Swaps and Derivatives, investment advisor, investment banking, investments, Italy, recession, sovereign debt, Spain, taxes, Unemployment tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , at 3:17 PM by Robert Barone

This is a mid-year overview of the economic and policy issues in the U.S. and worldwide, both positive and negative. I have divided the issues into economic and policy issues. With enough political will, policy issues can be addressed in the short run, while economic issues are longer-term in nature and are clearly influenced by policy.

Positives

• Cheap energy (economics and policy): There is growing recognition that cheap energy is key to economic growth; the next boom will be based on cheap energy.
 
• Manufacturing (economics): After years of decline, American manufacturing is in a renaissance, led by the auto industry.

• Corporate health (economics): Large corporations are extremely healthy with large cash hoards and many have low cost and low levels of debt.

• Politics (policy): Americans are tired of special interests’ ability to pay for political favors.

 
Negatives
 
• Recession in Europe (economics): This has implications for world growth because Europe’s troubled banks are the engines of international lending; Europe’s economy rivals that of the U.S. in size.

• European Monetary Union (policy): A Greek exit from the euro is still probable after recent election and is likely to spread contagion to Portugal, Spain and even Italy. There is also danger here to America’s financial system.

• Brazil, Russia, India, China or the BRIC, Growth Rate (economics): China appears to be in danger of a hard landing, as is Brazil. India is already there. This has serious implications for commodity producers like Canada and Australia.

• Fiscal cliff and policy uncertainties (policy): A significant shock will occur to the U.S. economy if tax policy (Bush tax cut expiration and reinstatement of the 2 percent payroll tax) isn’t changed by Jan. 1, 2013.

• Entitlements (policy): Mediterranean Europe is being crushed under the burden of entitlements; the U.S. is not far behind. This is the most serious of the fiscal issues but the hardest for the political system to deal with.

• Housing (economic & policy): In the U.S., housing appears to have found a bottom, but because of falling prices and underwater homeowners, a significant recovery is still years away. Housing is a huge issue in Europe, especially Spain, and it will emerge as an issue in Australia and Canada if China has a hard landing.

• Energy costs (economics & policy): The current high cost of energy is killing worldwide growth (see “Positives” above).

• U.S. taxmageddon (policy): The U.S. tax system discourages savings and investment (needed for growth), encourages debt and favors specific groups.

• Too Big To Fail (TBTF) (policy): The U.S. financial system is dominated by TBTF institutions that use implicit government backing to take unwarranted risk; TBTF has now been institutionalized by the Dodd-Frank legislation; small institutions that lend to small businesses are overregulated and are disappearing.

• Debt overhang (economics): The federal government, some states and localities and many consumers have too much debt; the de-leveraging that must occur stunts economic growth.

• Inflation (economics & policy): Real inflation is much higher than officially reported. If a true inflation index were used, it is likely that the data would show that the recession still hasn’t ended.

It is clear from the points above and from the latest data reports that worldwide, most major economies are slowing. It is unusual to have them all slowing at the same time and thus, the odds of a worldwide recession are quite high.

In the context of such an event or events, the U.S. will likely fare better than most. But that doesn’t mean good times, just better than its peers. There is also greater potential of destabilizing events (oil and Iran, contagion from Europe, Middle East unrest), which may have negative economic impacts worldwide. Thus, in the short-term it appears that the U.S. economy will continue its lackluster performance with a significant probability of an official recession and vulnerable to shock type events. (Both the fixed income and the equity markets seem to be signaling this.)

 
 
The extension of Operation Twist by the Federal Reserve on June 20 (the Fed will swap $267 billion of short-term Treasury notes for long-term ones through Dec. 31 which holds long-term rates down) was expected, and continues the low interest rate policy that has been in place for the past four years. That means interest rates will continue to remain low for several more years no matter who is elected in November. Robust economic growth will only return when policies regarding the issues outlined in the table are addressed.

Looking back at my blogs over the years, I have always been early in identifying trends. The positive trends are compelling despite the fact that the country must deal with huge short-term issues that will, no doubt, cause economic dislocation.

The only question is when the positives will become dominant economic forces, and that is clearly dependent on when enabling policies are adopted. 1) In the political arena, there is a growing restlessness by America’s taxpayers over Too Big To Fail and political practices where money and lobbyists influence policy and law (e.g., the Taxmageddon code). 2) The large cap corporate sector is healthier now than at any time in modern history. Resources for economic growth and expansion are readily available. Only a catalyst is needed. 3) America is on the “comeback” trail in manufacturing. Over the last decade, Asia’s wages have caught up.

Cultural differences and expensive shipping costs are making it more profitable and more manageable to manufacture at home. 4) Finally, and most important of all, unlike the last 40 years, because of new technology, the U.S. has now identified an abundance of cheaply retrievable energy resources within its own borders. As a result, just a few policy changes could unleash a new era of robust economic growth in the U.S. Let’s hope those changes occur sooner rather than later!

 
Robert Barone (Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University) is a Principal of Universal Value
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, a Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.
 
Information cited has been compiled from various sources which UVA believes to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee as to its accuracy. A more detailed description of the company, its management and practices is contained in its “Firm Brochure” (Form ADV, Part 2A) which may be obtained by contacting UVA at: 9222 Prototype Dr., Reno, NV 89521. Ph: (775) 284-7778.

June 6, 2012

Analysis: Little to like about last week’s employment data

Posted in Banking, Big Banks, Economic Growth, Economy, Europe, Housing Market, recession, Unemployment tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , at 5:31 PM by Robert Barone

Worse yet, the March and April Establishment Survey reports were revised downward by 49,000, not an insignificant revision. So, employment has been much weaker than originally indicated for the past three months. Further, we’ve recently seen an upward pop in the weekly first-time applications for unemployment insurance.
 
The more comprehensive unemployment rate (U-6, which is the broadest measure of labor-market slack) rose to 14.8%, from 14.5%. We are seeing employers substituting part-time workers for full-time workers — again, a negative indicator.
 
Average weekly earnings fell 0.2% in May because of fewer hours worked, on average. This indicator has fallen in two of the past three months and is a harbinger of what we are likely to see in second-quarter consumption spending.
 
Construction employment, while up slightly in the actual number count, was negative when seasonal adjustment is applied. May normally shows positive hiring in the industry, but this May, hiring was significantly below expectations, thus the negative seasonally adjusted number. I suspect this is because of housing markets still struggling with falling prices and excess inventory (Nevada, Arizona, Florida and parts of California). Additionally, we have recently seen a fall in the number of building permits.
 
Downward revision to first-quarter gross domestic product, to 1.9%, from 2.2%, was mainly because of a weaker consumer. Given this poor employment report, second-quarter real GDP might barely be positive in the official reporting.
 
I have written about downward bias flaws in the reporting of official inflation indexes. That means real inflation is higher than what is reported. Those who buy gasoline and food already know this. The implication is that official real GDP numbers are biased upward. Think about that! If inflation is only 2% higher than that officially reported, then the recession that “officially” ended three years ago might be ongoing.
 
None of the above speaks to the potential future shock that might hit the U.S. economy from the fallout of the European banking and debt crisis and the deep recession unfolding there. Any contagion from Europe will only compound the issues identified above.
 
The only silver lining is that weakening demand so evident in the reports has pushed oil prices down precipitously. Thus, we can expect some relief at the pumps this summer. Otherwise, the report was abysmal.
 
 
Robert Barone and Joshua Barone are Principals and Investment Advisor Representatives
of Universal Value Advisors, LLC, Reno, NV, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor.
Statistics and other information have been compiled from various sources. Universal Value Advisors believes the facts and information to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee to the complete accuracy of this information.
 
Universal Value Advisors, LLC is a registered investment adviser with the Securities and
Exchange Commission of the United States. A more detailed description of the company, its management and practices are contained in its “Firm Brochure”, (Form ADV, Part 2A). A copy of this Brochure may be received by contacting the company at: 9222 Prototype Drive, Reno, NV 89521, Phone (775) 284-7778.
 
Robert Barone (Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University) is a Principal of Universal Value
Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the
Investment Committee.
 
Information cited has been compiled from various sources which UVA believes to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee as to its accuracy. A more detailed description of the company, its management and practices is contained in its “Firm Brochure” (Form ADV, Part 2A) which may be obtained by contacting UVA at: 9222 Prototype Dr., Reno, NV 89521. Ph: (775) 284-7778.

May 21, 2012

Rebellion Against Austerity From Greece To Washington

Posted in Economy, Europe, government, greece, investment banking, investments, QE3, recession, Uncategorized tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , at 10:38 PM by Robert Barone

Since the initial euro crisis erupted in Greece two years ago, I have speculated that the necessary move toward austerity would be sidetracked by a political response from the impacted populations, which would elect leaders who promised a move away from such austerity. I didn’t realize how rapid and rabid the response would be.
 
The table below shows a list of headline anti-austerity movements, and, yes, I’ve included such movements in the U.S.
 
Country
Anti-Austerity Development
France The May 6th election of Hollande, a leader who promised more government spending, higher taxes and a reduction in the retirement age, at a time when budget deficits and austerity are key issues.
Greece Greek voters flocked to anti-austerity parties during the May 6th elections, stoking concern in Europe that austerity may be derailed.
Ireland Sentiment has turned sour on austerity with elections scheduled this spring.
Argentina Nationalization of Spanish owner Repsol’s (REP) 51% stake in YPF (YPF), a major oil producer.
Bolivia Seizure of Spanish power grid operator Red Electrica’s (REE.MC) 57% ownership of a Bolivian power line company which controlled 85% of the power lines in the country.
Spain Inability (or lack of determination) to meet promised austerity targets.
U.S. Political attack on the so-called wealthy and on cash rich corporations for not paying their “fair share” of taxes, in order to keep from having to cut spending.
 
Much of the backlash is occurring because governments can no longer fulfill the promises made, whether they be in transfer payments, services, or salaries and benefits, etc., due to shortfall of revenue and a remarkable growth in public debt burdens. As is clear now, it is one thing for politicians to talk about austerity, and another to live with the immediate consequences, often resulting in higher unemployment and recession.
 
Europe
 
Naturally, the hotbed of anti-austerity is Europe where they have long lived the entitlement life. Europe is clearly in recession, and it appears that it will be a long and deep one. The latest data from Europe shows that the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March was 43.8 (where 50 is the line of demarcation between contraction and expansion). In Spain, now officially in recession, the PMI was 43.5, and in depression wracked Greece, it is 40.7. The manufacturing indexes in Europe are also contracting. The manufacturing PMI in France in March was 46.9, and even in mighty Germany, the manufacturing index was 46.2.
 
Spain’s unemployment rate is over 24%; Greece’s more than 21%. In Europe, the number of unemployed stands at 17.4 million, an increase of more than 1.7 million in the past year. The official unemployment rate in the European Union will soon surpass 11%. So, it isn’t any wonder that those politicians that have adopted the Robin Hood approach have gained populist support. After all, politics are politics – and populations used to entitlements naturally vote for candidates that promise to give them something, usually by taking it away from someone else.
 
When the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked upon its Long Term Refunding Operations (LTRO1 and LTRO2), which gave all European banks access to 1% money for 3 years in order to stave off a rapidly approaching financial crisis in those banks, there was an unwritten quid pro quo. The bargain was the liquidity to stave off the financial crisis, and, in return, the member countries would have to embark upon a path of fiscal reform–austerity–that is now being unwound.
 
The question is, will the ECB continue along this money printing path to stave off the next phase of the financial crisis if the member countries have shunned their part of the bargain? Or, will the new and emerging concept of a European “growth pact” give the ECB the political cover it needs to continue printing. I suspect the latter.
 
The concept of a “growth pact” is nothing new to Europe. Austerity in the ’90s morphed into the “Stability and Growth Pact” (SGP), and it appears to be doing so again. The idea is to have the economy “grow” so that tax collections rise and deficits are reduced. Who can oppose that idea? Unfortunately, there is little that the European governments can do pro-actively to spur such growth.
 
The best thing would be to get out of the way of the private sector, but such ideas are anathema. Nevertheless, the Keynesian hope is that more deficit stimulus and more money printing with less austerity will prove to be the cure. I doubt this approach will be anything more than further can kicking. Furthermore, it is a dangerous game, especially in the hands of politicians, because even the “growth pact” still demands discipline in the budget and spending process.
 
In Greece, no government has been formed from the May 6th election results which pits polar opposite political views among the highest vote getters. The leader of the party with the second most votes ran on a platform to renege on the austerity agreements already in place with the external financing partners, to raise public pension payments and salaries, etc. And that leader seems to have gained even more popularity for the upcoming June elections. At current spending rates, Greece will run out of funds to pay its obligations by the end of June. And, it will be up to the Troika (European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund) to determine if Greece will get its next tranche of external financing (i.e., loans).
 
It appears that Europe is moving perilously closer to financial chaos. A Greek default on its external debt could easily result in a disorderly withdrawal from the EMU (European Monetary Union), which could trigger worldwide financial instability. Imagine if you were a Greek citizen and you woke up one morning to find that the euros in your local bank had been converted to new drachmas on a 1:1 basis. Later that day you discover that your new drachmas are worth substantially less than the euros you had yesterday. People aren’t dumb. Over the past few months, we have observed, through the borrowings at the ECB, a growing silent run on European banks in the at-risk countries (Spain, Italy). Italy even limited the amount of cash a bank can give its clients. And now, there is an outright run on Greek Banks.A Greek dismissal or withdrawal from the EMU along with its default on external debt is likely to trigger massive outright runs on Spanish, Italian and other weak European banks. The domino effects of this are unknown – all the way from other weak EMU partners electing the Greek path to a complete implosion of the EMU. The impacts will be worldwide. Expect volatility in markets and significant U.S. dollar strength.

 
The Americas
 
The U.S. isn’t too far behind Europe in the entitlement game as it has caught up rapidly over the past decade. But, in the U.S., the anti-austerity movement has taken a slightly different track. The ploy here is to avoid the basic issue of federal government overspending, over indebtedness and over promises. So, the greedy and evil corporations, which “evade” just and fair taxes, are blamed for the deficit because they refuse to pay their “fair share.” And those same corporations that “hoard” cash are responsible for lack of job growth because they won’t spend and invest those cash hoards.
 
The simple truth is that Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Wal-Mart (WMT), and all of the others are simply playing the tax game that was written and is orchestrated by none other than the politicians themselves. In what remains of our capitalist system, corporate managers are supposed to maximize profits, and one doesn’t do that without uncovering every dollar-saving loophole written into the tax code.
 
As for the cash, much of it remains offshore because it would be taxed if brought back. But it remains unused because of the ongoing uncertainties today’s politicians have imposed. No tax law is now permanent or at least has a long enough life for corporate managers to make prudent investment decisions. Most have a one or two year life (Bush tax cut extensions, payroll tax reduction, depreciation laws, etc.). Without some certainty about the tax code, about deficits, or about the cost of energy, those cash hoards simply won’t be invested – at least not in the U.S or other slow growth industrial countries.
 
This rhetoric is really a diversion from the real issue of too much debt, unsustainable deficits, and living beyond our means. The size of government is being addressed at most state and local levels (even by Jerry Brown in California, but definitely not at the federal level.
 
Unfortunately, the movement away from austerity either prolongs the crisis, or makes it ultimately worse. In Bolivia, the series of nationalizations that began in ’06 (natural gas fields) are now causing capital formation issues. The gas wells are producing less, as is the normal course for such wells, but there is no internal capital for new exploration (all the capital that could, fled long ago), and foreign capital simply won’t go there based upon the last six years of political behavior and private sector confiscation (besides Bolivia, the other Latin American countries with extreme left wing governments are Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, and Nicaragua).
 
As is evident in places like Bolivia and Venezuela, the move away from austerity via class warfare, confiscation, and nationalizations only prolongs the economic problems, usually making them far worse than the original austerity would have imposed.
 
Conclusion
 
The point is, “taxing the rich,” attacking successful corporations, nationalizing industries, or simply allowing government to pick the winners and the losers does nothing to create economic growth or jobs. It does just the opposite. Austerity, in some form, is necessary to pay back the over borrowing and over consuming of the past. There is no way around it.
 
Printing more money, running high deficits and taxing the productive members of society will not fix the growth and jobs issues. Rejecting the necessary austerity will just exacerbate the problem(s) or shift the burdens to other unsuspecting citizens, like seniors, retirees, or onto future generations through high or hyper inflation.
 
Erskine Bowles, a Democrat, co-chair of President Obama’s Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, and co-author of the Simpson-Bowles fiscal plan said this to the Council on Foreign Relations on April 24th:
 
Without serious debt reduction, it won’t take much of an increase in interest rates to create a fiscal crisis for the country the likes of which only those who lived through the Great Depression can recall. Once interest rates reach a level that reflects the genuine risk inherent in our ongoing fiscal mismanagement, and debt service eats up more and more of a shrinking pie, the financial crisis we just lived through (and are still living through) will seem like a sideshow… Deficits are truly like a cancer and over time they are going to destroy our country from within.
 
Most industrial countries with large fiscal deficits have a choice between something bad (austerity now) and something awful (high inflation, hyperinflation, social upheaval, or worse). While no one likes austerity, the consequences of choosing to kick the can further down the road are much worse. Yet, that is clearly what is happening with likely dire financial consequences, perhaps as soon as Greece formally defaults. Nonetheless, at this particular moment, “austerity” has become just another dirty word.
 
Robert Barone and Joshua Barone are Principals and Investment Advisor Representatives of Universal Value Advisors, LLC, Reno, NV, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor.  Statistics and other information have been compiled from various sources. Universal Value Advisors believes the facts and information to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee to the complete accuracy of this information.
 
Universal Value Advisors, LLC is a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States. A more detailed description of the company, its management and practices are contained in its “Firm Brochure”, (Form ADV, Part 2A). A copy of this Brochure may be received by contacting the company at: 9222 Prototype Drive, Reno, NV 89521, Phone (775) 284-7778.Robert Barone (Ph.D., Economics, Georgetown University) is a Principal of Universal Value Advisors (UVA), Reno, NV, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Dr. Barone is a former Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and is currently a Director of Allied Mineral Products, Columbus, Ohio, AAA Northern California, Nevada, Utah Auto Club, and the associated AAA Insurance Company where he chairs the Investment Committee.

Information cited has been compiled from various sources which UVA believes to be accurate and credible but makes no guarantee as to its accuracy. A more detailed description of the company, its management and practices is contained in its “Firm Brochure” (Form ADV, Part 2A) which may be obtained by contacting UVA at: 9222 Prototype Dr., Reno, NV 89521. Ph: (775) 284-7778.

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